Ever since Trump brokered a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the Nagorno-Karabakh war that kicked Russian peacekeepers out just last year, and an Azeri civilian airliner was hit by Russian air force over Chechnya and many people died, combined with attacks on Azeris from within Russia after two were arrested and killed, which escalated to Azerbaijan arresting Russian journalists after closing down Sputnik News, tensions are actively flaring as Russia grips for control in the South Caucasus - a new front that Russia is losing. A war between Russia and Azerbaijan would inevitably drag Turkey, and by extension, NATO, into a war.

Russia’s waning influence in the South Caucasus – GIS Reports
In Abu Dhabi and Washington, Armenia and Azerbaijan moved toward peace after decades of conflict, marking a shift away from Russian dominance.

Siener van Rensburg was right.